Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate for India's economic growth to 11.1 per cent in fiscal year to March 31, 2022, as a number of cities and states announced lockdowns of varying intensities to check spread of coronavirus infections. India is suffering the world's worst outbreak of COVID-19 cases, with deaths crossing 2.22 lakh and new cases above 3.5 lakh daily. This has led to demand for imposition of nationwide strict lockdowns to stem the spread of the virus - a move that the Modi government has so far avoided after the economic devastation last year from a similar strategy.
The National Council of Applied Economic Research has revised its forecast for the country's gross domestic product growth for 2006-07 to 8.44 per cent
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council has projected India's GDP growth at 5.3 per cent in 2013-14.
Stressing that economic growth will only move upwards, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday pegged the GDP growth rate for the next financial year at 10.5 per cent, though a tad lower than the government's projection of 11 per cent. The projection is in line with the estimates in the Union Budget 2021-22 presented in Parliament earlier this week. The Economic Survey, tabled by the government in Parliament recently, has projected that the economy will grow at 11 per cent, up from an estimated historic decline of 7.7 per cent in 2020-21, on account of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Describing the "lower agriculture output" as the "immediate challenge", Nomura said it could be a drag on GDP in the next quarter and on rural consumption. "But we expect urban consumption to rebound due to better job prospects," it said.
Fiscal correction is needed even after the changes that have been made now, otherwise the fiscal deficit would tend to be high.
NCAER has pegged the growth rate between 4.9 and 5.2 per cent, led by healthy projections in the industrial output and services sector.
The IMF on Tuesday projected an impressive 12.5 per cent growth rate for India in 2021, stronger than that of China, the only major economy to have a positive growth rate last year during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Washington-based global financial institution, in its annual World Economic Outlook ahead of the annual Spring meeting with the World Bank, said the Indian economy is expected to grow by 6.9 per cent in 2022. Notably in 2020, India's economy contracted by a record eight per cent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said as it projected an impressive 12.5 per cent growth rate for the country in 2021.
India's economy is forecast to grow at 4.8 per cent in 2013, down 1.3 per cent from its earlier projection, the UN's World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014 report said.
The Nifty ended at 4,867, down 77 points.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that a multilateral response is critical to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic in India and globally as it hailed recent announcements by several countries to provide immediate support to India. India is struggling with a second wave of the pandemic with more than 300,000 daily new coronavirus cases being reported in the past few days, and hospitals are reeling under a shortage of medical oxygen and beds.
Goods and Services Tax collections jumped 10.4 per cent to over Rs 1.72 lakh crore in January, reflecting buoyant economic activity and setting the stage for the next phase of GST reforms. This is the second-highest monthly collection ever and marks the third month in this financial year with a collection of Rs 1.70 lakh crore or more, a finance ministry statement said on Wednesday.
The NSE Nifty, after shuttling between 10,331.80 and 10,227.45, finally settled 196.75 points, or 1.94 points higher at 10,325.15.
IT service company Wipro on Friday reported 7.8 per cent year-on-year decline in its consolidated net profit for the March quarter to about Rs 2834.6 crore, and cautioned that the macroeconomic environment remains "uncertain". The Bengaluru-headquartered company, which recently saw a change of guard with Srinivas Pallia taking over at the helm as the new chief executive officer, has given an IT Services revenue growth guidance in the (-)1.5 per cent to +0.5 per cent band for June quarter on a constant currency basis.
The government's programmes should be expected to generate some momentum, but the macro-economic numbers are not encouraging, observes T N Ninan.
Professional forecasters have added to Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvurri Subbarao's dilemma on timing the exit from an accommodative monetary policy stance.
Investors' wealth soared by Rs 10.58 lakh crore in three days of the market rally, where the BSE benchmark jumped over 2 per cent, and hit an all-time high on Monday. Extending its winning momentum to the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 363.20 points or 0.49 per cent to settle at 74,014.55. During the day, it zoomed 603.27 points or 0.81 per cent to hit its record high of 74,254.62.
HSBC on Monday lowered India's GDP forecast for the current financial year to 4 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier saying economic uncertainty is likely to weigh on the growth forecast in the coming months.
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.3 per cent in current financial year aided by investment and domestic demand. According to a World Bank report released on Tuesday, India continues to show resilience against the backdrop of a challenging global environment. In India, which accounts for the bulk of South Asia region, growth is expected to remain robust at 6.3 per cent in 2023-24, India Development Update of the World Bank said.
RBI said aggregate demand during the year so far suggests that the shock to consumption is severe, and it will take quite some time to mend and regain the pre-COVID-19 momentum.
In the first quarter of FY14, real GDP growth estimated by the Central Statistics Office stood at 4.4 per cent on a factor cost basis, and at 2.4 per cent on a market price basis, the IMF said.
IndusInd Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 3 per cent, followed by Dr Reddy's, NTPC, Maruti, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel and HDFC. NSE Nifty declined 76.15 points to 15,691.40.
The IMF said in its latest report that the global economy is likely to grow at a slower rate than previously forecast over the next two years.
The brokerage firm cautioned that there is a possibility of further downside risks to growth, especially in the near term as RBI's policy interest rate cuts in recent months has not been translated into reduction in bank lending rates.
Differing with International Monetary Fund's growth forecast of 4.9 per cent for India during 2012, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said it has a statistical problem.
It further said that as the trends in inflation have remained benign, it does expect any significant changes in monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of India also took monetary easing measures by infusing more than Rs 4,00,000 crore (Rs 4,000 billion) since October.
It has also reduced its year-end target for the BSE benchmark Sensex by 15 per cent to 18,850.
Indian economy is gathering momentum in the second quarter, though inflation would continue to average above the central bank's comfort zone of 6 per cent, said an article in the RBI's monthly bulletin released on Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation shot up significantly to 7.44 per cent in July, from 4.87 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to soaring prices of tomato, vegetables and other food items. In his address to the nation on the Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to take more steps to contain price rise.
The agency said announcements by Modi and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley after government formation 'signal a strong intention to pursue reforms'.
2016 will be the first time in 15 years that the ratio between trade growth and world GDP will fall below 1:1
With the Central Statistical Organisation estimates putting India's economic growth rate at 8.7 per cent for the current financial year, spotlight has turned on GDP forecasts by various other agencies.
India, the world's fifth largest economy in the world, is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy with a GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI. After two years of rapid economic growth in 2021 and 2022, the Indian economy has continued to show sustained strong growth during the 2023 calendar year. India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.2-6.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024, being the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year.
Asian Development Bank on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 8.5 per cent from 8.2 per cent but expressed concern over persistent high inflation and rising value of rupee which could undermine future economic expansion.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has lowered its automobile production forecast by a percentage point to 9.6 per cent for this fiscal on account of a persistent higher interest rate regime, hike in taxes and the resultant increase in vehicle prices.
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
Prime Minister's key economic advisor C Rangarajan on Friday lowered the growth forecast for the current fiscal to 5.3 per cent from 6.4 per cent projected earlier and listed out host of measures including further liberalisation of foreign direct investment norms to improve economic condition.
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